Chris Van Es

Великая депрессия в экономической истории

ПАРИЖ. Спор, который возник в США и Европе между сторонниками дальнейших правительственных стимулов и защитниками сокращения бюджетных расходов, очень напоминает дискуссию по экономической истории. Обе стороны пересмотрели Великую депрессию 1930-х годов, а также многовековую историю кризисов суверенного долга, в споре, который имеет мало общего с обычными спорами по экономической политике.

Лагерь в поддержку стимулов часто ссылается на ущерб, полученный от сокращения бюджетных расходов в США в 1937 году, через четыре года после избрания Франклина Рузвельта президентом США и начала «Нового курса». По расчетам экономиста Пола ван ден Нурда, результатом бюджета 1937 года стало финансовое сокращение в размере до 3 процентных пунктов от ВВП ‑ отнюдь не тривиальная сумма. Темпы экономического роста упали с 13% в 1936 году до 6% в 1937 году, ВВП в 1938 году сократился на 4,5%, а уровень безработицы возрос с 14% до примерно 20%. Хотя бюджетная политика была не единственной причиной двукратного падения, несвоевременное сокращение, безусловно, сыграло свою роль.

Итак, мы в 1936 году, и не провоцирует ли затягивание бюджета, предполагаемое во многих странах, аналогичную рецессию двукратного падения?

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