Chris Van Es

经济记忆中的大萧条

巴黎——

欧美支持政府进一步刺激政策的人士和财政紧缩的支持者之间的争议很像一场关于经济历史的辩论。双方都回顾了20世纪30年代的大萧条以及几百年历史的政府债务危机。这场辩论与传统的经济政策辩论几乎没有相似点。

支持刺激政策的阵营常常指出1937年美国财政收缩所造成的危害,那是在富兰克林·罗斯福当选为美国总统并推行新政4年后进行的。根据经济学家保尔·冯·登·努尔德的计算,1937年预算中被削减的财政开支约占GDP的3%,这绝对不是个小数目。经济增长率从1936年的13%下跌至1937年的6%。GDP在1938年收缩了4.5%,而失业率从14%上升至20%左右。虽然财政政策不是造成双谷衰退的唯一原因,但不合时宜的财政收缩确实是其中一个原因。

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