Jon Krause

Parallelen zur Großen Depression

PRINCETON – Bei jeder Diskussion über die aktuelle Wirtschaftskrise werden auch gleich Parallelen zur Großen Depression gezogen. In seinem jüngsten „World Economic Outlook” untersucht der IWF diese Ähnlichkeiten, aber nicht nur im Hinblick auf den Zusammenbruch des Vertrauens in das Finanzsystem, sondern auch auf den raschen Rückgang des weltweiten Handels und der Industrieproduktion. Im Allgemeinen scheint weniger die ökonomische Theorie als vielmehr die Geschichte einen Leitfaden für die Interpretation überfallsartig eintretender und von Natur aus unvorhersehbarer Ereignisse zu bieten.

Beinahe jedes Mal, wenn momentan Parallelen zwischen heute und der Depression hergestellt werden, dient das Jahr 1929 als Referenzpunkt. Allerdings waren in der Depression zwei absolut unterschiedliche Krankheitssymptome festzustellen, wovon jedes eine eigene Diagnose – und eine eigene Therapie – erforderte.

Das erste und bekannteste Symptom war der Börsencrash im Oktober 1929 in den USA. In keinem anderen Land kam es zu einer Panik dieses Ausmaßes. Dies größtenteils deshalb, weil es auch in keinem anderen Land einen derart überschwänglichen Anstieg der Aktienpreise gab, der zahllose Amerikaner aus allen Schichten in die Finanzspekulation trieb.  

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