Paul Lachine

Die große Schuldenangst

NEW HAVEN – Eigentlich ist es schwer zu glauben, dass das grundlegende wirtschaftliche Vertrauen durch die Staatsschuldenkrise Europas und die wachsende Unsicherheit über die Schulden der Vereinigten Staaten so erschüttert wird. Aber offensichtlich ist genau dies passiert. Und Vertrauensverlust, der zu weniger Konsum und Investitionen führt, kann zu einer selbst erfüllenden Prophezeiung werden und genau die Wirtschaftsschwäche hervorrufen, vor der alle Angst haben. Diese perverse Dynamik spiegelt sich bereits jetzt in den fallenden Indizes für das Konsumentenvertrauen in Europa und Nordamerika wider.

In den USA gibt es jetzt einen täglichen Index, den Gallup-Index für wirtschaftliches Vertrauen, anhand dessen wir Vertrauensänderungen über die Zeit hinweg feststellen können. Dieser Index ist zwischen der ersten Juliwoche und der ersten Augustwoche heftig eingebrochen – als alle besorgt waren, die US-Führung könnte nicht in der Lage sein, die Staatsschuldengrenze zu erhöhen und einen Staatsbankrott am 2. August zu verhindern. In den Medien wurde täglich darüber berichtet. Der 2. August kam, ohne dass die USA pleite gingen, aber drei Tage später, an einem Freitag, senkten Standard & Poor’s ihr Rating für die langfristigen US-Schulden von AAA auf AA+. Am Montag darauf fiel der S&P 500 um fast 7%.

Offensichtlich führte die Möglichkeit einer Regierungsblockade bis hin zu einer demütigenden Staatspleite dazu, dass die USA von den tatsächlich mit dem Rücken zur Wand stehenden europäischen Ländern gar nicht mehr so weit entfernt schien. Die europäische Situation wurde zu derjenigen Amerikas.

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