Paul Lachine

债务大恐慌

纽黑文——欧洲主权债务危机以及对美国债务状况的日渐担忧似乎还不应该动摇基本经济信心。但显然,信心已经动摇了。而信心缺失会不利于消费和投资,从而演变成一场自我实现的预言,造成令人恐慌的经济疲软。欧洲和北美的信心指数出现了剧烈下降,便是这一恶性循环的反映。

如今,我们有了跟踪美国且每日更新的盖洛普经济信心指数(Gallup Economic Confidence Index),因此随时都能看到信心的变化。盖洛普指数在7月第一周到8月第一周的这段时间里出现了暴跌——这段时间也正是人们担心美国政治领袖无法提高联邦政府债务上限、美国将在8月2日违约的时候。这个故事每天在电视媒体上大讲特讲。8月2日早已经过去,违约并没有发生,但在3天后的星期五,标准普尔将其美国长期债务评级从AAA降低到了AA+。接下来的星期一,标普500指数暴跌近7%。

显然,政府陷入僵局从而造成令人蒙羞的违约的阴影在一夜之间让美国变得和真正在悬崖边苦苦挣扎的欧洲国家没什么两样了。欧洲的故事变成了美国的故事。

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