Paul Lachine

债务大恐慌

纽黑文——欧洲主权债务危机以及对美国债务状况的日渐担忧似乎还不应该动摇基本经济信心。但显然,信心已经动摇了。而信心缺失会不利于消费和投资,从而演变成一场自我实现的预言,造成令人恐慌的经济疲软。欧洲和北美的信心指数出现了剧烈下降,便是这一恶性循环的反映。

如今,我们有了跟踪美国且每日更新的盖洛普经济信心指数(Gallup Economic Confidence Index),因此随时都能看到信心的变化。盖洛普指数在7月第一周到8月第一周的这段时间里出现了暴跌——这段时间也正是人们担心美国政治领袖无法提高联邦政府债务上限、美国将在8月2日违约的时候。这个故事每天在电视媒体上大讲特讲。8月2日早已经过去,违约并没有发生,但在3天后的星期五,标准普尔将其美国长期债务评级从AAA降低到了AA+。接下来的星期一,标普500指数暴跌近7%。

显然,政府陷入僵局从而造成令人蒙羞的违约的阴影在一夜之间让美国变得和真正在悬崖边苦苦挣扎的欧洲国家没什么两样了。欧洲的故事变成了美国的故事。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/GhKQIIu/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now