La gran contracción de 2008-2009

 CAMBRIDGE – Una opinión común entre quienes hacen predicciones económicas y quienes apoyan los mercados alcistas es que ampquot;entre más profunda sea la recesión, más rápida será la recuperación.ampquot; Tienen razón -hasta cierto punto: inmediatamente después de una recesión normal, las economías, en efecto, a menudo crecen mucho más rápido que de costumbre en los siguientes doce meses. Por desgracia, la gran recesión de 2008-2009 está lejos de ser una recesión mundial normal.

La gran recesión se agudizó por una crisis financiera, lo que la convirtió en un asunto mucho más dañino que típicamente tiene mucho más efectos de largo plazo. Como señalamos Carmen Reinhart y yo en nuestro nuevo libro, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Esta vez es diferente : Ocho siglos de locura financiera), la gran recesión se puede describir mejor como “la gran contracción”, debido a la contracción masiva y simultánea del crédito, el comercio y el crecimiento globales que el mundo ha experimentado.

Por suerte, a pesar de una insuficiente recuperación en el mundo desarrollado, los mercados emergentes de Asia, América Latina y Medio Oriente tienen un enorme potencial de crecimiento latente. Gran parte de ellos deberían poder crecer vigorosamente, pese al desafiante ambiente global.

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