Великое сокращение 2008-2009 годов

КЕМБРИДЖ. Среди экономистов-аналитиков и биржевых маклеров бытует мнение, что «чем глубже рецессия, тем быстрее выздоровление». Они правы, но только до определенного момента: сразу после нормальной рецессии, экономика действительно довольно часто восстанавливается намного быстрее, чем обычно, в течение последующих двенадцати месяцев. К несчастью, Великая рецессия 2008-2009 годов далеко не является обычной глобальной рецессией.

Финансовый кризис стал генератором Великой рецессии, сделав ее намного более бессимптомным явлением, которое, как правило, имеет долгосрочные последствия. Как мы с Кармен Рейнхарт утверждаем в своей книге « Сейчас другое время: восемь веков финансовой неосмотрительности », Великую рецессию лучше описать как «Великое сокращение», учитывая массовое и одновременное сокращение выдачи кредитов, сокращение торговли и экономического роста, которые пережил мир.

К счастью, вопреки вялому выздоровлению в развитых странах мира, развивающиеся рынки Азии, Латинской Америки и Среднего Востока имеют скрытый потенциал роста. Большинство из них может расти интенсивно, несмотря на напряженную окружающую обстановку в мире.

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