Die Große Kontraktion von 2008-2009

CAMBRIDGE, MASS.: Eine beliebte Ansicht unter Konjunkturbeobachtern und „Marktbullen“ lautet: „Je tiefer die Rezession, desto schneller die Erholung.“ Damit haben sie recht – bis zu einem gewissen Punkt: Unmittelbar nach einer normalen Rezession wachsen Volkswirtschaften in den nächsten zwölf Monaten häufig viel stärker als gewöhnlich. Leider ist die Große Rezession von 2008-2009 alles andere als eine normale globale Rezession.

Die Große Rezession wurde durch eine Finanzkrise angeheizt, was sie zu einer sehr viel heimtückischeren Angelegenheit macht, die in der Regel deutlich längere Auswirkungen hat. Wie Carmen Reinhart und ich in unserem neuen Buch This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly argumentieren, lässt sich die Große Rezession angesichts der enormen, gleichzeitigen Kontraktion des weltweiten Kreditwesens, Handels und Wachstums besser als „Große Kontraktion“ beschreiben.

Glücklicherweise haben die Schwellenmärkte in Asien, Lateinamerika und dem Nahen Osten trotz einer gebremsten Konjunkturerholung in der entwickelten Welt ein enormes latentes Wachstumspotenzial. Die meisten von ihnen dürften trotz des schwierigen globalen Umfeldes in der Lage sein, stark zu wachsen.

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