La grande contraction de 2008-2009

CAMBRIDGE –Selon les spécialistes des prévisions économiques et les spéculateurs à la hausse, ampquot;plus grave est la récession, plus rapide sera la reprise ampquot;. Ils ont raison, au moins sur un point : immédiatement après une récession normale , durant les 12 mois qui suivent la croissance est souvent plus rapide qu'à l'accoutumée. Malheureusement, la Grande récession mondiale de 2008-2009 n'est pas une récession normale.

Cette récession s'est doublée d'une crise financière, la transformant en un phénomène beaucoup plus insidieux, avec des conséquences à plus long terme. Ainsi que Carmen Reinhart et moi le notons dans notre nouveau livre This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly , étant donné la contraction massive et simultanée du crédit, du commerce et de la croissance à travers le monde, on pourrait qualifier plus justement la Grande récession de Grande contraction.

Heureusement, malgré une reprise plus ou moins chaotique dans les développés, les marchés émergeants d'Asie, d'Amérique latine et du Moyen-Orient disposent d'un énorme potentiel de croissance. En dépit d'un contexte mondial difficile, la plupart devraient connaître une forte croissance.

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