Velká kontrakce 2008-2009

CAMBRIDGE – Mezi ekonomickými prognostiky a tržními optimisty si získal oblibu názor, že „čím hlubší recese, tím rychlejší zotavení“. Je to pravda, ovšem jen do jisté míry: bezprostředně po normální recesi ekonomiky skutečně po dobu následujících dvanácti měsíců často rostou mnohem rychleji než obvykle. Velká recese 2008-2009 bohužel ani zdaleka není normální globální recesí.

Velké recesi dodala náboj finanční krize a učinila z ní daleko zákeřnější problém, který má obvykle mnohem dlouhodobější důsledky. Jak s Carmen Reinhartovou uvádíme v naší nové knize Tentokrát je to jinak: Osm desetiletí finanční pošetilosti , pro velkou recesi by se lépe hodil název „velká kontrakce“ vzhledem k mohutnému a současnému smrštění globálního objemu úvěrů, obchodu a růstu, který svět v poslední době zažívá.

Navzdory kulhavému zotavení v rozvinutém světě mají naštěstí rozvíjející se trhy v Asii, Latinské Americe a na Blízkém východě obrovský skrytý růstový potenciál. I přes problematické globální prostředí by jich většina měla být schopna silného růstu.

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