Die große amerikanische Illusion

NEW HAVEN – Auf dem Höhepunkt der Finanzkrise in Asien, im September 1998, übermittelte der damalige Chef der amerikanischen Notenbank Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, eine simple Botschaft: die USA seien keine Oase des Wohlstands inmitten einer krisengeschüttelten Welt. Greenspans Argument trifft heute in noch viel höherem Maße zu als damals.

Ja, die amerikanische Wirtschaft befand sich in den letzten drei Jahren auf einem schwachen Erholungskurs. Aber immerhin, so behaupten viele, ist es eine Erholung – und daher eine Quelle anhaltender Widerstandsfähigkeit inmitten einer krisengeschüttelten entwickelten Welt. Im Gegensatz zur Großen Rezession der Jahre 2008-2009 herrscht heute die weit verbreitete Hoffnung, dass Amerika in der Lage ist, Kurs zu halten und für den Rest der Welt inmitten der Eurokrise ein Sicherheitsnetz zu bieten.

Falsch gedacht. Seit dem ersten Quartal 2009, als die US-Wirtschaft nach der schlimmsten Rezession der Nachkriegszeit die Talsohle erreicht hatte, waren Exporte für 41 Prozent der nachfolgenden Erholung verantwortlich. Richtig ist: da die amerikanischen Verbraucher im Gefolge des größten Kaufrausches der Geschichte ausgefallen waren,  bezog die amerikanische Wirtschaft ihre Versorgung überproportional von fremden Märkten. Da sich diese Märkte nun selbst in Schwierigkeiten befinden, könnten ihnen die USA rasch nachfolgen.

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