美国大幻象

纽黑文—1998年9月,在亚洲金融危机最危险的时候,时任美联储主席格林斯潘的立场很简单:在步履蹒跚的世界中,美国无法成为繁荣的绿洲。时至今日,格林斯潘的观点比当时还要正确。

诚然,美国经济在过去三年中已经走上了疲软复苏的轨道。但很多人都认为,无论如何至少在复苏,在发达世界步履蹒跚的环境下,美国称得上坚韧之源。与2008—2009年的大衰退不同,如今,人们普遍希望美国有能力成为中流砥柱,为世界提供支持,战胜欧元危机。

让我们深思一番。2009年一季度,美国经济在战后最严重的衰退中触底,此后,出口在此轮反弹中贡献了足足41%。这就对了:在经历了历史上最大的消费狂欢后,美国消费者再也无力回天,美国经济需要大量依靠外国市场过活。现如今外国市场麻烦重重,美国可能很快也无法独善其身。

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