Comments 8

美国大幻象

Jun 27, 2012 Stephen S. Roach

纽黑文—1998年9月，在亚洲金融危机最危险的时候，时任美联储主席格林斯潘的立场很简单：在步履蹒跚的世界中，美国无法成为繁荣的绿洲。时至今日，格林斯潘的观点比当时还要正确。

诚然，美国经济在过去三年中已经走上了疲软复苏的轨道。但很多人都认为，无论如何至少在复苏，在发达世界步履蹒跚的环境下，美国称得上坚韧之源。与2008—2009年的大衰退不同，如今，人们普遍希望美国有能力成为中流砥柱，为世界提供支持，战胜欧元危机。

让我们深思一番。2009年一季度，美国经济在战后最严重的衰退中触底，此后，出口在此轮反弹中贡献了足足41%。这就对了：在经历了历史上最大的消费狂欢后，美国消费者再也无力回天，美国经济需要大量依靠外国市场过活。现如今外国市场麻烦重重，美国可能很快也无法独善其身。

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srinivasan gopalan Jul 7, 2012

If internalization of production and services of skilled people helped and are still helping fire America's export Juggernaut, the reasons for its internal restiveness about the problems plaguing the American economy could not be answered with any justification. The free trade bastion which has been the major prop for the erstwhile GATT and its next avatar the WTO at least in its first decade since its advent in 1995 is now a reluctant supporter of the WTO. This is borne out in not sealing a deal to the long-delayed Doha Round of trade talks set off in November 2011As long as this is not recognized and remedied before long, the problems plaguing the developed countries would only persist and worsen further. The global community in general and the United States in particular can no longer afford to keep themselves off from the virtues and the attendant gains of multilateral cooperation in their own enlightened self-interest. It is the lack of perspicacious vision to evolve a collective solution to the global common problems that has been the sole factor in the current shambles in which many advanced countries find themselves with the emerging economies in tow! It is time international cooperation is made feasible in an inter-connected universe where globalization and liberalization had gone too far to effect any unilateral remedy by any one country, however puissant it may be! G.Srinivasan. New Delhi
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Procyon Mukherjee Jun 29, 2012

I cannot quite agree that exports alone hold the key to the future as we need to look at the quality of this export, how intensive it is in the labor component is also equally important. What we see today is an export of capital, which is fueled by an enormous amount of liquidity in the system.

The soaring bond prices and near zero yields is as much a reflection of liquidity preference as lack of credible investment option that has a clear future; the range of uncertainty is no way diminished by the flow of money, in fact it is adding to it. But treasury bonds are a different story. Even if I assume that a bulk of the preference for treasury bonds stems from those who want to create insurance for its currency, we have seen actually that these currencies have been depreciating, like the Yuan or the Rupee. This leads one to the stunning inference that America has become the chief exporter of capital to the external world for buying labor (both skilled and unskilled) at the cheapest possible cost. The acceleration of this activity (export of capital and import of labor) effectively boils down to heightened unemployment within the national territory and a downward wage spiral, which is also the very reason why inflation is tamed at its best.

By higher capital export that is used in cheaper labor imports, we do not see how America will progress. We are adding to labor surplus.

Procyon Mukherjee
- Jim Nail Aug 9, 2012
  
  Completely agree, Procyon. Export composition is key. I still maintain that we should focus on net exports rather than on exports per se, anyway. There must be a middle ground that allows global companies to seek low costs, while still allowing broad-based US manufacturing to exist.
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- William Hampton Jun 29, 2012
  
  I agree. You hit the nail on the head. I would hope that it back fires and these cheap labor sources start becoming serious competitors to our corporations. At least maybe this could cause the reduction of soaring prices. I that unlike labor, big money seems to be unionized, I doubt this will happen.
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William Hampton Jun 29, 2012

I have a question. If an American company manufacturing from China sells their products to Germany are those products considered exports of American products or Chinese products? How do these products made in China by American companies help the American economy as much as products made in the USA? Where are the materials from and produced that are used to make products made in China by American companies? etc, etc, etc. I do not see any economists talking about this, and how it is affecting this country. It seems to me there should be a distinction between those products made in China and ones actual made in America. Maybe it is not important or I am not reading enough.
- peter fairley Jul 7, 2012
  
  reply to Will Hampton. quote: "the monthly figures for the trade deficit are significantly overstated, says a Federal Reserve Bank economist(1999).
  
  The U.S. Census Bureau, which is responsible for trade data, says that a major component of the trade deficit called the merchandise trade deficit overstates the gap between imports and exports of goods.
  
  The Census believes that merchandise exports are probably understated by 3 percent to 7 percent, but possibly as much as 10 percent.
  Since there is no evidence of similar errors in import data, Census estimates the merchandise trade deficit was overstated by as much as 34 percent in 1997.
  Until the Census began basing figures on exports to Canada on that country's import data, in 1990, it was estimated that exports to Canada were understated by as much as 20 percent.
  
  A major reason the data are flawed is because Census bases merchandise trade figures on the paperwork importers and exporters file with the U.S. Customs Service -- but exporters are not required to file paperwork for shipments valued at less than $2,500. Instead, Census relies on a survey to estimate the fraction of total trade in these small shipments; but the most recent survey was conducted almost 10 years ago.
  
  Since then, the market share of small shipments has changed relative to large ones, due to such things as the boom in inexpensive air cargo services; but the magnitude of the shift is unknown.
  
  Source: Joseph A. Ritter, "An Overstated Headline," National Economic Trends, July 199, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
  http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=11444
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- Kevin Lim Jul 3, 2012
  
  No simple answer. Here is a primer
  
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_of_origin
  
  A simple example. If I imported unpainted toy trains into USA from China, and painted/packaged them in USA, its unlikely any body would be willing to certify them made in the USA. Where it gets tricky is where the components are split up and from all over. Say I get thet train wheels from a supplier in Brazil, the chasis from China, and the electronics from Germany, and I assemble them altogether in a plant here in USA. Whether I can label it made in the USA (or China, Germany, Brazil) depends on what are the tariff classifications of the components and the finished product under the Harmonised System.
  
  It can get pretty complex and its a fertile ground for litigation as manufacturers try to squeeze into a domestic origin for tariff purposes.
  
  Sounds confusing? It is.
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Manmohan Manu Jun 28, 2012

Good article . I work for McGladrey and there's a guide on exporting on the website ( http://bit.ly/HdWo1R ) with insights from surveys and industry experts .
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美国大幻象

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