John Overmyer

Vládní dluhová bomba

STANFORD – V době, kdy se ekonomiky z celého světa po nejhlubší recesi za poslední generaci navracejí k růstu, se pozornost znovu upírá na enormní fiskální deficity a obrovskou expanzi vládních dluhů. Letošní předpokládané deficity (vyjádřené jako podíl HDP) dosahují ve Spojených státech pozoruhodných 13,5%, což je dvojnásobek předchozího rekordu dosaženého uprostřed strašlivé krize na počátku 80. let. A zde jsou deficity některých dalších velkých ekonomik: Velká Británie 14,4%, Francie 8,2%, Indie 8,0%, Japonsko 7,4%, Itálie 5,4%, Německo 4,7%, Čína 4,2% a Kanada 2,4%.

Kromě automatického poklesu daňových výnosů a zvýšení sociálních výdajů během recese se mnoho států ve snaze stimulovat své ekonomiky uchýlilo také k velkému zvyšování výdajů a/nebo daňovým škrtům. Zvýšení deficitu je součtem těchto „automatických stabilizátorů“ a volitelných programů. Volitelná politická reakce byla největší v USA, kde v letech 2008-2010 dosáhne celkem 4,8% HDP, a také v Číně, kde dosáhne 4,4% HDP – v Německu a Kanadě byla naproti tomu umírněná a ve Velké Británii, Francii a Indii menší.

Rovněž automatické zvýšení deficitu bylo největší v USA, umírněné ve Velké Británii a Německu a menší v Japonsku, Indii, Kanadě, Číně, Francii a Itálii. Tyto automatické dopady by se brzy měly začít obracet, jakmile se ekonomická aktivita zotaví, avšak vedou se rozsáhlé debaty – mimo jiné i na schůzkách G-8 a G-20 –, zda by se volitelný stimul měl prodloužit nebo ukončit, zopakovat nebo zvrátit.

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