El evangelio del crecimiento

CAMBERRA/SEÚL – Casi cuatro años después del comienzo de la crisis financiera planetaria, la economía mundial sigue estando frágil y el desempleo inaceptablemente elevado. Hay unos 200 millones de desempleados en todo el mundo, incluidos casi 75 millones de jóvenes. El crecimiento está debilitándose en muchos países, los riesgos van en aumento y la incertidumbre se ha intensificado, a consecuencia en particular de los acontecimientos habidos en Europa. Sólo una recuperación rápida y sostenida puede detener el aumento del costo humano del estancamiento económico.

Cuando el G-20 se reúna en Los Cabos (México) del 18 al 19 de junio, su imperativo será el de modificar las impresiones públicas pesimistas y las preocupaciones sobre el futuro y substituirlas por un estado de ánimo optimista en pro del crecimiento y la estabilidad. Es necesario que se adopten medidas resueltas para abordar la incertidumbre que afronta la economía mundial y trazar una vía hacia una recuperación y una creación de empleo autosostenidos.

Vemos dos componentes en dicha estrategia. En primer lugar, es necesario un mensaje claro de Europa –la causa inmediata de preocupación económica mundial–, en el sentido de que está adoptando medidas decisivas para estabilizar y fortalecer sus bancos y de que está centrada en restablecer el crecimiento y, al tiempo, comprometida de forma creíble con la consolidación fiscal. Un elemento decisivo del restablecimiento de la confianza en Europa es el acuerdo sobre una “hoja de ruta” para que la zona del euro apuntale su unión monetaria con una unión fiscal y una unión bancaria, incluidas la supervisión y la garantía paneuropeas de los depósitos.

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