Barrie Maguire

La burbuja y los promotores del oro

NUEVA YORK – Los precios del oro han estado aumentando considerablemente, han superado la barrera de los 1,000 dólares y en las últimas semanas se han ido acercando a los 1,200 dólares por onza. Los promotores del oro sostienen que el precio podría rebasar los 2,000 dólares. Pero el incremento reciente se parece sospechosamente a una burbuja y sólo está justificado parcialmente por los fundamentos económicos.

Los precios del oro se disparan únicamente en dos situaciones: cuando la inflación es alta y creciente se recurre al oro como protección; y cuando hay el riesgo de una depresión y los inversionistas temen por la seguridad de sus depósitos bancarios, el oro se convierte en un refugio seguro.

Los últimos dos años se ajustan a este patrón. Los precios del oro comenzaron a aumentar bruscamente en la primera mitad de 2008, cuando los mercados emergentes se estaban sobrecalentando, los precios de los productos básicos crecían y existía la preocupación de la inflación en aumento en los mercados emergentes con alto crecimiento. Incluso ese aumento fue en parte una burbuja, que se colapsó en la segunda mitad de 2008 cuando la economía mundial cayó en una recesión después de que el petróleo llegara a los 145 dólares y acabara con el crecimiento global. A medida que las preocupaciones acerca de la deflación sustituyeron al temor por la inflación, los precios del oro comenzaron a caer con la corrección de los precios de los productos básicos.

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