Barrie Maguire

Goldblase und Goldbugs

NEW YORK – Die Goldpreise sind steil gestiegen, haben die 1000-Dollar-Marke überschritten und sind in den vergangenen Wochen auf 1200 Dollar pro Unze und darüber hinaus geklettert. Die „Goldbugs“ (Investoren, die auf steigende Goldpreise spekulieren) behaupten derzeit, die Preise könnten auf über 2000 Dollar steigen. Doch sieht die jüngste Preissteigerung verdächtig nach einer Blase aus, da sich die Zunahme nur teilweise anhand der wirtschaftlichen Grundlagen rechtfertigen lässt.

Die Goldpreise steigen nur in zwei Situationen steil an: Wenn die Inflation hoch ist und weiter ansteigt, wird Gold zur Absicherung gegen die Inflation; und wenn das Risiko einer Beinahe-Depression besteht und die Investoren um die Sicherheit ihrer Bankeinlagen bangen, wird Gold zu einem sicheren Hafen.

Die letzten beiden Jahre passen in dieses Muster hinein. Der rasche Anstieg der Goldpreise begann in der ersten Hälfte 2008, als die aufstrebenden Märkte überhitzten, die Rohstoffpreise stiegen und es Bedenken hinsichtlich der steigenden Inflation in Schwellenländern mit hohem Wachstum gab. Sogar dieser Anstieg war zum Teil eine Blase, die in der zweiten Hälfte 2008 zusammenbrach, als die Welt, nachdem der Ölpreis 145 Dollar erreichte und damit das Wachstum abwürgte, in eine Rezession fiel. Als Bedenken aufkamen, dass es zu einer Deflation kommen könnte, und diese Bedenken die Angst vor der Inflation ablösten, begannen die Goldpreise zusammen mit der Korrektur der Rohstoffpreise zu fallen.

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