O Mundo Depois de Novembro

MADRID – A 6 de Novembro, entre Barack Obama ou Mitt Romney, um deles emergirá vitorioso depois de uma esgotante campanha eleitoral, iniciando um rumo para os próximos quatro anos. A um oceano de distância, a 8 de Novembro, mais de 2.000 membros do Partido Comunista Chinês reunir-se-ão em Beijing. Aproximadamente uma semana mais tarde, os membros do Comité Permanente do Politburo sairão por ordem hierárquica, preparando-se para tomar conta de um país em crescimento com 1,3 mil milhões de habitantes.

Os dirigentes das duas maiores economias mundiais estão a mudar. Tal como o próprio mundo. O Médio Oriente, em particular, está a viver um momento de transformação intensa. Enquanto a reconstrução – tanto em sentido literal como figurado – se inicia nalgumas partes da região, países como a Síria estão em chamas. Outros, como o Irão, com a sua revolução moribunda, nunca deixaram de estar em conflito. Por entre uma economia em ruínas, o país permanece beligerante, usando a sua representação Libanesa, o Hezbollah, para lançar pelo menos um bem-sucedido voo não tripulado sobre Israel e alegadamente iniciando recentes ciber-ataques.

Como resultado, as relações entre os intervenientes regionais permanecem tensas. Depois do seu discurso nas Nações Unidas apelando a uma “linha vermelha” para o programa nuclear Iraniano na primavera ou no verão de 2013, o Primeiro-Ministro Israelita Binyamin Netanyahu convocou eleições gerais antecipadas, que potencialmente lhe poderão dar um mandato forte para agir contra o Irão. O Egipto, entretanto, está à procura do seu próprio equilíbrio, tanto internamente, com a elaboração de uma nova constituição, como em termos de política externa.

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