Quel sera le nouveau visage du monde après le mois de novembre ?

MADRID – Le 6 novembre, la victoire d'Obama ou de Romney à l'issue d'une campagne électorale épuisante va ouvrir une nouvelle période de quatre ans pour les USA. Par-delà l'océan, le 8 novembre, plus de 2000 membres du parti communiste chinois se réuniront à Pékin. Une semaine plus tard, les membres du comité permanent du Politburo se présenteront par ordre hiérarchique pour prendre la direction d'un pays en pleine croissance de 1,3 milliards d'habitants.

Nous assistons au renouvellement des dirigeants des deux premières puissances économiques de la planète, elle-même en plein changement. Le Moyen-Orient en particulier se transforme radicalement. Si la reconstruction (tant au sens littéral que figuré) commence déjà en certains endroits de la région, des pays comme la Syrie se sont embrasés. D'autres comme l'Iran, avec sa révolution moribonde, n'ont jamais cessé de gronder. En plein écroulement économique, le pays reste agressif. Par l'intermédiaire de son allié au Liban, le Hezbollah, il a lancé avec succès au moins un drone au-dessus d'Israël et serait à l'origine de cyber-attaques qui ont eu lieu récemment.

Dans ce contexte, les relations entre les acteurs régionaux restent tendues. Lors de son discours à l'ONU, le Premier ministre israélien Benjamin Netanyahu a appelé à fixer une ligne rouge au programme nucléaire iranien - susceptible d'être atteinte durant le printemps ou l'été 2013. Par la suite il a annoncé des élections législatives anticipées qui pourraient lui donner une marge d'initiative plus importante pour agir contre l'Iran. Non loin de là, l'Egypte trouve son propre équilibre, tant sur le plan intérieur avec la préparation d'une nouvelle Constitution, que sur le plan de la politique étrangère.

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