Quel sera le nouveau visage du monde après le mois de novembre ?

MADRID – Le 6 novembre, la victoire d'Obama ou de Romney à l'issue d'une campagne électorale épuisante va ouvrir une nouvelle période de quatre ans pour les USA. Par-delà l'océan, le 8 novembre, plus de 2000 membres du parti communiste chinois se réuniront à Pékin. Une semaine plus tard, les membres du comité permanent du Politburo se présenteront par ordre hiérarchique pour prendre la direction d'un pays en pleine croissance de 1,3 milliards d'habitants.

Nous assistons au renouvellement des dirigeants des deux premières puissances économiques de la planète, elle-même en plein changement. Le Moyen-Orient en particulier se transforme radicalement. Si la reconstruction (tant au sens littéral que figuré) commence déjà en certains endroits de la région, des pays comme la Syrie se sont embrasés. D'autres comme l'Iran, avec sa révolution moribonde, n'ont jamais cessé de gronder. En plein écroulement économique, le pays reste agressif. Par l'intermédiaire de son allié au Liban, le Hezbollah, il a lancé avec succès au moins un drone au-dessus d'Israël et serait à l'origine de cyber-attaques qui ont eu lieu récemment.

Dans ce contexte, les relations entre les acteurs régionaux restent tendues. Lors de son discours à l'ONU, le Premier ministre israélien Benjamin Netanyahu a appelé à fixer une ligne rouge au programme nucléaire iranien - susceptible d'être atteinte durant le printemps ou l'été 2013. Par la suite il a annoncé des élections législatives anticipées qui pourraient lui donner une marge d'initiative plus importante pour agir contre l'Iran. Non loin de là, l'Egypte trouve son propre équilibre, tant sur le plan intérieur avec la préparation d'une nouvelle Constitution, que sur le plan de la politique étrangère.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/GNNr3zb/fr;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.