El factor tiempo en los mercados mundiales

BARCELONA – Durante los últimos meses, la dicotomía entre la bonanza en los mercados financieros por un lado, y economías deprimidas y políticas disfuncionales por otro, se ve amenazante. Sin embargo, se presta insuficiente atención a un factor crítico –el tiempo, y quién lo controla– que bien podría significar la diferencia entre una resolución mundial ordenada de las crecientes inconsistencias actuales y el regreso a una fase más complicada.

Es comprensible que los mercados hayan fluctuado durante el primer trimestre de 2013. La mayor parte de los datos económicos confirman que, después del trauma causado por la crisis financiera mundial, la economía estadounidense está recuperándose, en forma acelerada.

La secuencia ha quedado bien establecida. Comenzó con grandes empresas multinacionales, en la situación financiera más sólida que puedo recordar. Las empresas más pequeñas se recuperan gradualmente; los bancos han recuperado su capital de protección y reducido los activos dudosos; el sector de la vivienda se ha estabilizado; y un creciente número de hogares está restableciendo balances más saludables, especialmente a medida que, gradualmente, el empleo se recupera.

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