2013年经济的基本面

发自纽约——今年全球经济将会展现出与2012年经济环境的若干相似之处。这并不让人吃惊:我们面临着又一个全球经济增长平均只得3%的年份,但各国的复苏速度并不相同——发达国家的增长率低于平均水平,仅有1%且不断下滑,而新兴市场的增长率则为5%,依然维持升势。但这中间也存在着一些重要的差别。

令人痛苦的去杠杆化过程——必须减少消费提高储蓄才能降低债务和杠杆——依然在很多发达国家中经历着,这意味着较为缓慢的经济增长。但今年财政紧缩会遍布大部分发达国家,而不仅仅是欧元区外围国家和英国。的确,财政紧缩正慢慢渗入到欧元区中心、美国及其他发达国家(日本除外)。鉴于大部分发达国家同步进行财政紧缩,某些国家下一年的温和增长会让位于彻底的紧缩。

随着大部分发达国家经济增长乏力,始于2012年下半年的高风险资产价格回升并非源自于基本面的改善,而是受到新一轮的非常规货币政策驱动。大多数重要发达国家的央行——比如欧洲央行、美联储、英格兰银行、瑞士国家银行——都忙于实施某种形式的定量宽松政策,而日本央行很有可能会加入这种大潮——首相安倍晋三领导的新政府致力于推动实施更加非常规的政策。

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