El inevitable duro aterrizaje de la economía mundial

En las últimas semanas se ha agravado la contracción de la liquidez mundial y del crédito que empezó en agosto. Esto es fácil de demostrar: en Estados Unidos, la zona del euro y el Reino Unido, el margen entre la tasa LIBOR (a la que se contratan los préstamos interbancarios) y las tasas de interés de los bancos centrales –así como las de los bonos de gobierno—es extremadamente elevado, y ha aumentado desde que inició la crisis. Esto es señal de temor ante el riesgo y de desconfianza de las contrapartes.

Sin duda, los bancos centrales más importantes han inyectado docenas de miles de millones de dólares de liquidez al sector bancario comercial, y la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos, el Banco de Inglaterra y el Banco de Canadá han disminuido sus tasas de interés. Pero el empeoramiento de las condiciones financieras demuestra que esta respuesta de política ha fracasado rotundamente.

Por ello, no debe sorprender que los bancos centrales se estén alarmando cada vez más ante la crisis más grave desde el inicio de la globalización financiera. El anuncio reciente de inyecciones de liquidez por parte de la Reserva Federal y otros cuatro bancos centrales importantes es, para decirlo sin rodeos, insuficiente y llega demasiado tarde.

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