La tormenta que se cierne sobre la economía mundial

MUNICH – De 2004 a 2007, la economía mundial experimentó un auge inhabitualmente largo e intenso, con tasas de crecimiento de casi el 5 por ciento y la participación de muchos países. La Unión Europea (UE15) registró un 2,4 por ciento de crecimiento por término medio durante esos años. En Alemania, donde el crecimiento ascendió al 1,8 por ciento, por término medio, durante ese período, algunos periodistas proclamaron un nuevo milagro económico. Sin embargo, ahora unas noticias cada vez peores están despertando dudas poderosas: nubes negras se ciernen sobre los Estados Unidos, en particular. ¿Está la economía mundial al borde de la recesión?

En los EE.UU., los precios de los bienes inmuebles siguen en caída libre y la crisis bancaria sigue teniendo nuevas víctimas (Bear Stearns, IndyMac, First Heritage Bank, First National Bank de Nevada, First Priority Bank, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etcétera). En el mundo bancario en conjunto, las pérdidas incobrables previstas superan ya en gran medida la cifra de 400.000 millones de euros proyectada la pasada primavera.

Además, el desempleo está aumentando al mayor ritmo en siete años. El empleo total, que sigue siendo elevado desde el punto de vista histórico, ha ido disminuyendo continuamente desde comienzos de 2008. Es extraño que el mercado de valores estadounidense no se haya desplomado aún, pues todos los demás indicadores van hacia abajo. La relación cotización/beneficio, calculada por Standard ampamp; Poor, era 20, aproximadamente, muy superior a la media a largo plazo de 16, aproximadamente, desde 1881.

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