全球经济正在聚集的风暴

慕尼黑-从2004年到2007年,全球经济经历了一个不同寻常的长时间强劲增长,增长率几乎达到了5%并且许多国家都有增长。在这些年份,欧盟(欧盟15国)的平均增长率达到了2.4%。在德国,这个时期的平均增长率为1.8%,就有些记者宣布这是一个新的经济奇迹。但是,现在越来越多的坏消息引起人们对经济状况的严重怀疑;特别是乌云笼罩着美国,尤其如此。世界经济正处在衰退的边缘吗?

 在美国,房产价格仍然以自由落体的方式下降,而且银行危机仍然在危及新的受害者(从贝尔斯登、因迪美、第一传统银行、内华达州第一国民银行、第一优先银行到房地美以及房贷美等等)。在整个银行业,现在预期的呆账核销数额大大超过了去年春天预计的4000亿欧元。

而且,失业人数在以七年来最快的速度增长。从历史来看,现在的整体就业率仍然很高,但是从2008年年初以来就开始持续下降。既然其他所有的指标都显示出向下的趋势,美国的股票市场还没有崩溃是很令人惊讶的。标普的市盈率最近处于20倍左右,远远高于自1881年以来的长期平均市盈率16倍的水平。

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