Призрак Пакта стабильности

Призрак Пакта стабильности, потерявшего силу, когда Франция и Германия отказались соблюдать установленные им правила, продолжает преследовать Европу и особенно посткоммунистические страны, вступающие в Европейский Союз в мае текущего года. Нарушив запрет Пакта стабильности на наличие бюджетного дефицита, превышающего 3% ВВП, Франция и Германия подорвали ключевой критерий для определения готовности стран-кандидатов к вступлению в еврозону. В связи с этим возникает вопрос, будет ли правильным отказать стране в принятии в еврозону на основании невыполнения ею условий, с презрением отвергаемых нынешними членами еврозоны?

Неясна и ситуация с критерием конвергенции относительно обменных курсов национальных валют. Страны должны находиться в режиме Европейского механизма определения валютных курсов (ERM II) в течение двух лет для того, чтобы обеспечить установление "правильного" обменного курса при введении евро. Германия легко удовлетворяла этому критерию в 1996-1998 годах, хотя, согласно результатам большинства оценок, стоимость немецкой марки была завышена на 20% по сравнению с франком и другими валютами стран еврозоны. Это пошатнуло экономику Германии и продолжает замедлять экономический рост всей еврозоны.

Последние три года Европейская Комиссия пыталась ужесточить критерий обменных курсов, что сделало бы его непреодолимым препятствием для кандидатов на вступление в еврозону. И хотя критерий требует, чтобы страны находились в установленных пределах колебаний механизма обменных курсов ERM - 15% по обе стороны от центрального паритета - по словам Комиссии, рекомендации по вопросу принятия новых стран в еврозону будут основываться на показателях стабильности их национальной валюты в пределах колебаний валютного курса ±2.25%.

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