Der Geist in der Aufschwung-Maschine

NEW HAVEN – In dem im Oktober veröffentlichten World Economic Outlook des Internationalen Währungsfonds wird verkündet, dass „entschlossene Strategien der öffentlichen Hand eine Erholung der Industrieproduktion, des Welthandels und der Einzelhandelsumsätze begünstigt“ hätten. Neben vielen nationalen Spitzenpolitikern scheint auch der IWF vor allem diese Strategien für die Herbeiführung dessen verantwortlich zu machen, was das Ende der globalen Rezession werden könnte.

Den nationalen Führungen und internationalen Organisationen gebührt tatsächlich große Anerkennung für ihre Aktivitäten, seit dem Frühjahr für Zeichen einer Erholung zu sorgen. Die internationale Koordination der wirtschaftspolitischen Strategien, wie in der jüngsten G-20-Erklärung formell festgehalten, ist beispiellos in der Geschichte.

Allerdings beschleicht einen auch der Verdacht, dass die Staatsspitzen aus aller Welt ihre Politik allzu früh in den Himmel gehoben haben. Schließlich neigen Rezessionen im Allgemeinen dazu, von selbst zu Ende zu gehen. Das geschah auch, als es noch keine staatlichen Stabilisierungsprogramme gab. So endeten beispielsweise in den Vereinigten Staaten die Rezessionen der Jahre 1857-58, 1860-61, 1865-67, 1882-85, 1887-88, 1890-91, 1893-94, 1895-97, 1899-1900, 1902-04, 1907-08 und 1910-12 samt und sonders ohne die Hilfe der Federal Reserve, die erst 1914 ihre Pforten öffnete.

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