Duch ve stroji zotavení

NEW HAVEN – V říjnovém Světovém ekonomickém výhledu Mezinárodního měnového fondu se konstatuje, že „silné veřejné politiky přiživily vzepětí průmyslové výroby, světového obchodu a maloobchodního prodeje“. MMF spolu s nejvyššími představiteli mnoha států je podle všeho připraven připsat těmto politikám veškeré zásluhy za možné skončení globální hospodářské recese.

Vedoucí představitelé států a mezinárodních organizací si skutečně zaslouží značné uznání za to, co od jara učinili, aby se mohly objevit známky zotavení. Mezinárodní koordinace světové hospodářské politiky, jíž dalo formální podobu nedávné prohlášení skupiny G-20, nemá v dějinách obdoby.

Zároveň se však nelze vyhnout podezření, že si světoví lídři přisvojili velkou část uznání za svou politiku až příliš rychle. Recese koneckonců obvykle odeznívají samy a dělo se tak i v době, kdy žádné vládní stabilizační politiky neexistovaly. Například ve Spojených státech skončily recese z let 1857-58, 1860-61, 1865-67, 1882-85, 1887-88, 1890-91, 1893-94, 1895-97, 1899-1900, 1902-04, 1907-08 a 1910-12 i bez pomoci Federálního rezervního systému, jehož dveře se poprvé otevřely až v roce 1914.

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