来自利比亚的地缘政治信息

发自新德里——不知西方在干涉利比亚过程中的所产生“使命偏离效应”(mission creep,意指行动偏离原定目标)是否会无意中在欧洲的南大门外孕育出一个伊斯兰圣战大本营呢?

西方各国肯定会自我感觉良好,因为他们在卡塔尔和阿联酋的支持下阻止了一场对利比亚平民的屠杀。对于独裁者像平民动武的行为,民主世界是不能袖手旁观的。但如果要制止卡扎菲这个暴君放肆镇压民众的话,任何干涉行动——无论是在军事上还是经济外交方面——都必须是公正和中立的。

当前这场阿拉伯政治动荡最终会像1989年柏林墙倒塌改变欧洲那样彻底改变整个中东和北非地区。事实上1989年是个分水岭,在极为短促的历史时期内实现了最为深刻的全球地缘政治变革。但从那以后的几十年来,阿拉伯世界的统治者,政权和政治习俗却似乎依然根深蒂固,不可动摇。

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