La próxima prueba del G-20

BRUSELAS – Las reuniones del G-20 este mes, primero en Busán, Corea del Sur, para los ministros de Finanzas, y más avanzado el mes en Toronto para los jefes de gobierno, marcan el momento en que los principales actores de la economía mundial cambian de marcha y pasan del estímulo presupuestario al recorte de gastos. No todos están de acuerdo al respecto.

Antes de la reunión de Busán, el secretario del Tesoro de Estados Unidos, Tim Geithner, hizo una advertencia en contra de "una maniobra generalizada e indistinta para implementar planes de consolidación" e destacó la necesidad de "proceder al ritmo del fortalecimiento de la recuperación del sector privado". Pero los otros ministros de Finanzas no se hicieron eco de las advertencias de Geithner. Más bien, hicieron hincapié en la "importancia de contar con finanzas públicas sostenibles" y en la necesidad de "medidas destinadas a asegurar una sustentabilidad fiscal". Atrás quedó la insistencia en estrategias de salida cautelosas y de implementación gradual; la búsqueda de un reequilibrio resultó casi imperceptible en el comunicado de la reunión.

Este cambio afecta a Europa antes que a nadie. Poco antes del encuentro de Busán, los países del sur de Europa anunciaron importantes esfuerzos de consolidación con la esperanza de tranquilizar a los mercados de deuda. Poco tiempo después, el primer ministro británico, David Cameron, anunció "años de dolor por delante". La canciller de Alemania, Angela Merkel, diseñó un plan de reducción de gastos de 100.000 millones de dólares, y el primer ministro francés, François Fillon, un plan similar de 80.000 millones de dólares.

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