The Future of the Japan-US Alliance

    剑桥-许多分析家最近注意到日本对其与美国的同盟心存不快。其中部分缘于朝鲜的核武器以及担心美国不会恰当地代表日本的利益(比如在几年前被朝鲜绑架的日本公民的问题)。其他问题包括美国驻扎在冲绳的海军基地以及为将部分设施迁到关岛的费用分担问题。存在的问题很多,但是我们还是把它们看成是“家务事”:许多夫妇会为这样的事情发生争执,但是绝对不会想到要为此离婚。

    然而还存在更深层次的担忧,就是日本担心美国转向崛起的中国而把自己边缘化。比如,一些日本人抱怨说在美国的大选中中国受到的关注要远远超过日本。产生这种担心并不奇怪:美国和日本的防御能力并不对称,而这注定会使更多地处于依赖的一方感到焦虑。

    多年来,为使同盟显得更加均衡而提出了种种建议,包括使日本成为一个拥有军事能力、甚至包括核武器的“正常”国家。但是这些措施所带来的问题远比它们所解决的问题多。即便日本贯彻这些措施,它的军事力量依然无法与美国相抗衡,也依然无法消除这种不对称。值得注意的是在冷战期间,美国的欧洲盟友也对依赖性和美国对它们的抛弃有着类似的担心,尽管它们自己的军事力量也很强。

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