The Future of the Dollar

CAMBRIDGE – American economic policy aims for a dollar that is strong at home and competitive abroad. A strong dollar at home means a dollar that retains its purchasing power, thanks to a low rate of inflation. A competitive dollar abroad means that other countries should not implement policies that artificially depress the value of their currencies in order to promote exports and deter imports.

The goal of a strong dollar at home has guided the Federal Reserve at least since Paul Volcker crushed inflation in the early 1980’s. Although the United States does not have a formal inflation target, financial markets understand that the Fed aims for an inflation rate close to 2%. And, while the law mandates the Fed to ensure sustainable growth as well as low inflation, monetary officials recognize that sustainable growth requires price stability.

For decades, US Treasury officials have insisted that “A strong dollar is good for America.” But that slogan has never been a guide to official US action in international markets.

The Treasury does not intervene in currency markets to bolster the dollar, and the Fed does not raise interest rates for that purpose. Instead, the US stresses to foreign governments that an effective global trading system requires not only the removal of formal trade barriers, but also the absence of policies aimed at causing currency values that promote large trade surpluses.