Il futuro del dollaro

CAMBRIDGE – La politica economica americana punta a un dollaro che sia forte a livello nazionale e competitivo all’estero. Un dollaro forte a livello nazionale significa una moneta che mantiene il proprio potere di acquisto, grazie a un basso tasso di inflazione. Il dollaro è competitivo all’estero quando altri paesi non attuano politiche in grado di indebolire artificialmente il valore delle proprie valute allo scopo di favorire le esportazioni e scoraggiare le importazioni.

Il rafforzamento del dollaro è uno dei principali obiettivi della Federal Reserve sin da quando, all’inizio degli anni ’80, Paul Volcker ha sferrato un duro colpo all’inflazione. Sebbene gli Stati Uniti non abbiano un target di inflazione formale, i mercati finanziari percepiscono che la volontà della Fed è di mantenere un tasso di inflazione vicino al 2%. Così la legge impone alla Fed di garantire una crescita sostenibile e un basso livello di inflazione, e i fautori delle politiche monetarie riconoscono l’importanza della stabilità dei prezzi ai fini di una crescita sostenibile.

Da decenni i ministri del Tesoro Usa ribadiscono che «Un dollaro forte è nell’interesse dell’America», ma non si sono mai serviti di questo slogan per attuare interventi reali nei mercati internazionali.

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