Barrie Maguire

Die Zukunft der Macht

CAMBRIDGE – Es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass es im 21. Jahrhundert eine globale Regierung geben wird, aber Global Governance ist bereits in unterschiedlichem Maße vorhanden. Es gibt hunderte von Verträgen auf der Welt, Institutionen und Systeme zur Regelung des zwischenstaatlichen Verhaltens, so etwa in den Bereichen Telekommunikation, Zivilluftfahrt, Abfallbeseitigung auf hoher See, Handel und sogar bezogen auf die Verbreitung von Atomwaffen.

Solche Institutionen sind jedoch selten autark. Sie bedürfen immer noch der Führung durch Großmächte. Und es muss sich erst noch zeigen, ob die Großmächte dieses Jahrhunderts dieser Rolle gerecht werden.

Wie wird sich das Verhalten von China und Indien ändern, während sie an Macht gewinnen? Für diejenigen, die bis Mitte des Jahrhunderts mit einer tripolaren Welt aus den USA, China und Indien rechnen, ist es eine Ironie, dass alle drei Staaten – die bevölkerungsreichsten der Welt – zu jenen gehören, die ihre Souveränität am stärksten schützen.

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