Paul Lachine

El futuro del crecimiento económico

CAMBRIDGE – Quizás por primera vez en la historia moderna, el futuro de la economía mundial está en manos de los países pobres. Los Estados Unidos y Europa se debaten como gigantes heridos, víctimas de sus excesos financieros y parálisis política. Parecen condenados a años de estancamiento o de lento crecimiento, a una creciente desigualdad y posibles conflictos sociales por sus cuantiosas deudas.

Gran parte del resto del mundo, mientras tanto, rebosa de energía y esperanzas. Quienes diseñan las políticas en China, Brasil, india y Turquía se preocupan sobre excesos de crecimiento y no por su ausencia. Según algunas mediciones, China esa es la mayor economía mundial, y los países en desarrollo y mercados emergentes son responsables de más de la mitad del producto mundial. La consultora McKinsey ha bautizado a África, durante mucho tiempo sinónimo de fracaso económico, la tierra de los "leones en movimiento."

Como sucede a menudo, la ficción es la que mejor refleja los cambios de humor. El libro cómico del novelista ruso exiliado Gary Shteyngart, Super Sad True Love Story (Historia supertriste de amor verdadero) es una guía tan buena como cualquier otra de lo que puede depararnos el futuro. Situada en un futuro cercano, la historia se desarrolla teniendo como telón de fondo a unos EE. UU. que han caído en la ruina financiera y la dictadura unipartidaria, y que se encuentran enredados en otra aventura militar sin sentido en el extranjero, esta vez en Venezuela. Todo el trabajo real en las corporaciones queda en manos de inmigrantes capacitados; las universidades de la Ivy League han adoptado los nombres de sus contrapartes asiáticas para sobrevivir; la economía está regida por el banco central chino; y los "dólares estadounidenses anclados al yuan" han reemplazado a la moneda habitual como activo seguro.

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