Un plan Brady complet

BERKELEY – Les marchés financiers sont de plus en plus convaincus que la restructuration de la dette grecque sera inévitable, et les responsables européens redoutent le pire. « Dans le pire des cas, » selon les mots de Juergen Stark, membre du bureau de la Banque Centrale Européenne (BCE), « les conséquences d’une restructuration de la dette de l’un des membres de la zone euro pourraient être bien plus importantes que celles de la banqueroute de Lehman Brothers. »

Mais on peut aussi envisager une issue positive selon laquelle la dette grecque serait restructurée de manière à ne pas menacer le système bancaire.

La manière la plus simple de réaliser cela serait d’exiger des banques exposées à la dette des pays du sud de l’Europe de lever plus de capitaux. La deuxième vague de tests de résistance par l’EBA (l’autorité bancaire européenne) est ostensiblement conçue dans ce sens. En identifiant les faibles et les forts, des tests de résistance adéquats permettraient de limiter le risque pour les contreparties. Les prêteurs auraient alors les bonnes informations pour décider – ou non – de travailler avec tel ou tel interlocuteur.

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