La niebla de las finanzas

Los líderes militares hablan de la "niebla de guerra" -el estado de incertidumbre esencial que marca el combate-. La reciente crisis de crédito y liquidez reveló una situación similar en los mercados financieros, porque nadie, ni siquiera los bancos centrales, parece entender su naturaleza o su magnitud.

Se suele sugerir que lo que se da en llamar la crisis de "hipotecas de alto riesgo" fue el resultado de políticas monetarias laxas que derivaron en el exceso de liquidez en los mercados financieros. Pero aquí existe una paradoja obvia porque, ¿cómo un exceso de liquidez puede resultar en una escasez de liquidez que tiene que ser compensada por los bancos centrales?

De hecho, la laxidad monetaria puede ser síntoma, no de exceso de liquidez, sino de exceso de ahorro. Esto se refleja en la creciente desigualdad de ingresos en gran parte del mundo desarrollado y los vertiginosos excedentes de los países productores de petróleo y las naciones asiáticas. El surgimiento de los fondos de riqueza soberana como los de China y los Estados del Golfo para invertir los ahorros de los excedentes presupuestarios de estos países es sólo la punta del iceberg del exceso de ahorros global.

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