Die Nebel der Finanzwelt

Militärs sprechen vom „Nebel des Krieges“, um einen Zustand völliger Unsicherheit während des Kampfs zu beschreiben. Die jüngste Kredit- und Liquiditätskrise hat auf den Finanzmärkten zu einem ähnlichen Zustand geführt, weil niemand Art und Ausmaß dieser Krise zu verstehen scheint, nicht einmal die Zentralbanken.

Man bekommt des Öfteren zu hören, dass die so genannte „Subprime-Krise” die Folge einer laxen Geldpolitik war, die zu übermäßiger Liquidität auf den Finanzmärkten führte. Allerdings haben wir es hier mit einem offenkundigen Widerspruch zu tun, denn wie kann ein Liquiditäts überschuss schließlich zu einem Liquiditäts mangel führen, der dann von den Zentralbanken wieder ausgeglichen werden muss?

Eine laxe Geldpolitik kann nämlich ein Symptom für übermäßige Ersparnisse und nicht für exzessive Liquidität sein. Diese Tatsache spiegelt sich auch in zunehmenden Einkommensungleichgewichten in großen Teilen der Industrieländer wider sowie in den Schwindel erregenden Überschüssen Öl produzierender Staaten und mancher asiatischer Länder. Sovereign Wealth Fonds aus China und den Golfstaaten, die die Überschüsse aus den Budgets dieser Länder investieren, stellen dabei nur die Spitze des weltweiten Eisberges an Ersparnisüberschüssen dar.

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