Útěk ke kvalitě

BERKELEY – Koncem května činil výnos do splatnosti u třicetiletých dluhopisů amerického ministerstva financí 4,07% ročně – což byl od počátku měsíce pokles o plného půl procentního bodu. Znamená to, že se cena třicetiletého dluhopisu vydaného ministerstvem financí zvýšila o více než 15%. Průměrný investor byl tedy na konci měsíce ochoten zaplatit za tyto dluhopisy o více než 15% v hotovosti a o 30% v majetku více než na počátku měsíce. Signalizuje to pozoruhodný posun v relativní poptávce po vysoce kvalitních a likvidních finančních aktivech – a zároveň jde o mimořádný vzestup celotržního převisu poptávky po takových aktivech.

Proč je to důležité? Protože jak v první polovině devatenáctého století napsal ekonom John Stuart Mill, nadměrná poptávka po hotovosti (nebo po nějakém širším okruhu vysoce kvalitních a likvidních aktiv) je nadměrnou nabídkou všeho ostatního. Princip, jemuž ekonomové o tři generace později začali říkat Walrasův zákon, tvrdí, že jakýkoliv trh, na němž lidé plánují koupit více, než kolik se prodává, musí být vyvážen trhem nebo trhy, na nichž lidé plánují koupit méně.

Tento princip vidíme v akci už od začátku podzimu 2007, kdy s sebou rostoucí převis poptávky po bezpečných, likvidních a kvalitních finančních aktivech nese rostoucí převis nabídky zboží a služeb, jež jsou produktem pokračující lidské práce. Je to pravda do té míry, že dnes existuje desetiprocentní propast mezi současným výkonem globální ekonomiky a tím, co by ekonomika produkovala, kdyby se nacházela v normálním, relativně zdravém stavu blížícím se rovnováze.

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