Mark Weber

La decadencia final de Occidente

PARÍS – En 2040/2050, ¿hablarán los demógrafos de la soledad del hombre blanco?, como en tiempos se referían los historiadores a la “carga del hombre blanco” para calificar las llamadas “responsabilidades imperiales” de algunas naciones europeas?

La demografía no es una ciencia exacta. Innumerables predicciones alarmantes, desde la de Malthus hasta la del Club de Roma, han resultado equivocadas, pero, según un reciente y muy convincente ensayo publicado en la revista Foreign Affairs , se está produciendo una doble tendencia demográfica y económica que provocará cambios espectaculares a mediados de este siglo. El mundo occidental representará sólo el 12 por ciento de la población del mundo y los europeos quedarán reducidos al 6 por ciento. (En 1913, un año antes del estallido de la primera guerra mundial, Europa estaba ligeramente más poblada que China,) Económicamente, Occidente representará el 30 por ciento, aproximadamente, de la población mundial, nivel que corresponde a la proporción de Europa en el siglo XVIII y menor que en 1958, año en que representaba el 68 por ciento.

Lo que estamos presenciando es un regreso al pasado, en el que Occidente vuelva a ocupar sus lugar en el mundo antes del comienzo del largo proceso de decadencia histórica de China al comienzo del siglo XIX, El largo período de dominio mundial por parte de Occidente toca a su fin, impulsado y acelerado por sus propios errores y su comportamiento irresponsable. Estamos entrando en un nuevo ciclo histórico, en el que habrá, proporcionalmente, menos occidentales, más africanos y habitantes del Oriente medio y muchos más asiáticos, con mucha mayor importancia económica y estratégica.

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