Mark Weber


巴黎 ——

2040 年或 2050 年的人口学家是否会像曾提到 白人的负担 的历史学家那样,用 白人的寂寞 来描述某些欧洲国家所谓的 帝国责任 呢?

严格地说,人口学并非一门科学学科。从马尔萨斯( Malthus )到 罗马俱乐部 Club of Rome ),无数耸人听闻的预言最后都以谬论收场。但是,《外交》( Foreign Affairs )杂志最近发表的一篇文章却有力地指出,一种人口学和经济学的双重趋势正在成型,将在本世纪中叶之前形成重大转变。到时,西方所占全球人口比例仅为 12% ,而欧洲则下降到 6% 。(欧洲人口在二战爆发前 1 年的 1913 年仍略胜中国。)经济方面,西方将约占全球总产量的 30%—— 该比例与其 18 世纪份额相当,远低于 1950 68% 的水平。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To access our archive, please log in or register now and read two articles from our archive every month for free. For unlimited access to our archive, as well as to the unrivaled analysis of PS On Point, subscribe now.


By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.