Paul Lachine

Relevanztest für die US-Notenbank

NEW YORK: Angesichts von Zinsen in Nullpunktnähe haben die US Federal Reserve und andere Notenbanken zu kämpfen, um weiter von Bedeutung zu bleiben. Der letzte Pfeil in ihrem Köcher ist die so genannte quantitative Lockerung, und die dürfte sich, was Wiederbelebung der US-Konjunktur angeht, vermutlich als ebenso ineffektiv erweisen wie alles andere, was die Fed in den letzten Jahren versucht hat. Schlimmer noch: Die quantitative Lockerung dürfte die Steuerzahler einen Haufen Geld kosten und zugleich die Effektivität der Fed auf Jahre hinaus beschädigen.

John Maynard Keynes argumentierte einst, dass die Geldpolitik während der Großen Depression ineffektiv war. Die Notenbanken verstehen sich besser darauf, den irrationalen Überschwang der Märkte während einer Blase in Schach zu halten – indem sie die Kreditverfügbarkeit beschränken oder die Zinsen anheben, um die Wirtschaft im Zaum zu halten –, als darauf, in einer Rezession die Investitionstätigkeit zu fördern. Deshalb zielt eine gute Geldpolitik darauf ab, das Entstehen von Blasen zu verhindern.

Doch die Fed – seit mehr als zwei Jahrzehnten Gefangene der Marktfundamentalisten und der Interessen der Wall Street – versäumte nicht nur, Beschränkungen durchzusetzen, sondern trat sogar noch als Cheerleader auf. Und nachdem sie erst eine zentrale Rolle dabei gespielt hat, das aktuelle Chaos anzurichten, versucht sie jetzt, ihr Ansehen wiederherzustellen. 

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