Der tückische Ausstieg aus QE und Nullzinspolitik

BOMBAY – Die anhaltende Schwäche der US-Wirtschaft, in der die Entschuldung des privaten und des öffentlichen Sektors weiter fortschreitet, hat zu widerspenstig hoher Arbeitslosigkeit und unterdurchschnittlichem Wachstum geführt. Die Auswirkungen der Sparpolitik – eine steile Erhöhung der Steuern und ein steiler Rückgang der Staatsausgaben seit Jahresbeginn – untergraben die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung zusätzlich.

Tatsächlich haben die jüngsten Daten Hinweise einiger US-Notenbankvertreter, dass die Fed einen Ausstieg aus ihrer gegenwärtigen (zeitlich unbegrenzten) Runde der quantitativen Lockerung (QE3) einleiten sollte, praktisch zum Verstummen gebracht. Angesichts niedrigen Wachstums, hoher Arbeitslosigkeit (die nur deshalb gefallen ist, weil viele entmutigte Arbeitnehmer inzwischen aus dem Arbeitsmarkt aussteigen) und einer Inflation, die deutlich unter dem Zielwert der Fed liegt, ist dies nicht der richtige Zeitpunkt, um liquiditätsbeschränkende Maßnahmen einzuleiten.

Das Problem ist, dass die Liquiditätsspritzen der Fed nicht zu einer Kreditvergabe an die Realwirtschaft führen, sondern vielmehr die Kapitalaufnahme und Risikobereitschaft an den Finanzmärkten steigern. Die Ausgabe riskanter „Junk Bonds“ mit lockeren Vertragsklauseln und viel zu niedriger Verzinsung nimmt zu, der Aktienmarkt erreicht trotz Konjunkturverlangsamung neue Höchststände, und das Geld fließt in ertragsstarke Schwellenmärkte.

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