美联储的退出困局

孟买——私有和公共部门的去杠杆化在美国经济持续疲软的背景下齐头并进,已经导致失业率居高不下和经济增长低于预期。年初实行的紧缩财政政策导致在税收激增的同时政府开支急剧下降,从而进一步影响了经济效益。

事实上,近期的经济数据有效遏止了某些联储官员提出的理应立即退出目前的第三轮(不设上限)的量化宽松政策(QE3)的暗示。鉴于经济增长缓慢、失业率居高不下(仅仅因为心灰意冷的工人退出就业大军失业率才有所降低)和通胀率远低于联储目标,现在并不是开始限制流动性的最好时机。

问题在于美联储的流动性注入并没有为实体经济创造信贷,反而促进了金融市场的杠杆和冒险情绪。利率过低且契约松散的高风险垃圾债券发行增加;股票市场在经济增长放缓的同时新高迭起;资金正在朝高收益新兴市场流去。

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