恐惧因素

洛杉矶——关于财政扩张还是财政整合的争论在发达世界愈演愈烈。为了应对2008年的全球衰退,英国实施了财政紧缩,而美国抛出了8 000亿美元财政刺激。尽管经济疲软,但英国首相卡梅伦仍然承诺将把紧缩进行到底。奥巴马则继续着财政刺激,在最新的方案中提出追加4 500亿美元政府支出和减税,以帮助提振就业。

在过去24个月中,美国的失业率有22个月高于9%。有些人支持进一步实施刺激以,但其他人要求实施英国式的紧缩计划。这两种做法可以有效地使失业降下来吗?再来一轮“量化宽松”(通过央行买入金融资产实现的非常规经济刺激)效果会更好吗?

诺贝尔经济学奖获得者在如何解决失业问题上也分裂为两个阵营,这让公众无所适从。保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)和约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)认为应该扩大财政刺激,以教育和基础设施投资上的政府支出为目标。另一方面,罗伯特·蒙代尔(Robert Mundell)、迈仑·斯科尔斯(Myron Scholes)和莱茵哈德·泽尔腾(Reinhard Selten)认为应该采取“严厉措施”来控制债务水平。

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