Das falsche Versprechen der Stabilität

Frankreich hat sich jetzt Portugal und Deutschland angeschlossen, die den Stabilitätspakt in Frage stellen: die Vereinbarung der Mitglieder der Eurozone, ihre Defizite unterhalb einer bestimmten Grenze zu halten (z. Zt. 3% des BIP, in der Zukunft wahrscheinlich niedriger). Frankreichs Premierminister Pierre Raffarin führte zur Begründung der Haltung seiner Regierung an, der Staat könne den Franzosen keine Sparmaßnahmen aufzwingen.

Monsieur Raffarin hatte insofern Recht, als Sparmaßnahmen erforderlich wären, würde sich Frankreich an die Vorschriften des Pakts halten. Aber in wirtschaftpolitischen Debatten geht es selten um die Wahrheit. Die Wahrheit zu sagen, überlässt man am liebsten den Wissenschaftlern, deren Auseinandersetzungen es oft schwierig machen, herauszufinden, wer recht hat und wer nicht. Vor ein paar Jahren ist Alan Blinder, damals stellvertretender Vorsitzender des Verwaltungsrats der amerikanischen Notenbank, scharf angegriffen worden, weil er das Offensichtliche aussprach: dass die Währungspolitik nicht nur die Inflation, sondern auch die Arbeitslosigkeit zu berücksichtigen hätte und dass zumindest kurzfristig beide in Konflikt geraten könnten.

Es gibt etliche eherne Grundsätze im Zusammenhang mit Zentralbanken, die nicht hinterfragbar sind; wer das tut, wird aus dem kleinen Kreis derer, die angeblich wissen, wie die Welt "wirklich" funktioniert, schnell ausgeschlossen. Zum Beispiel:

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