La fausse promesse de stabilité

La France a désormais rejoint le Portugal et l'Allemagne en brandissant le Pacte de stabilité, l'accord conclu entre les membres de la zone euro pour garder leur déficit au-dessous d'un seuil critique (3 % du PNB aujourd'hui, mais probablement à un seuil inférieur dans le futur). Pierre Raffarin, le premier ministre français, a défendu la position de son gouvernement en déclarant que la France n'était pas prête à imposer une certaine austérité à son peuple.

Monsieur Raffarin avait raison de dire que l'austérité s'ensuivrait si la France obéissait aux restrictions du Pacte mais dans les débats sur la politique économique, la vérité est rarement appréciée. Il est parfois préférable de laisser les universitaires énoncer la vérité car leurs querelles rendent difficile de discerner qui a raison de qui a tort. Quelques années auparavant, Alan Blinder, alors vice président du Bureau de la réserve fédérale, a été condamné pour avoir déclaré ouvertement que la politique monétaire devrait cibler non seulement l'inflation, mais également le chômage, et que, au moins dans le court terme, les deux pourraient trouver un compromis.

Il existe une longue liste de sermons de banquiers centraux, qui ne sont pas censés être remis en question ; si vous le faites, vous êtes exilé du petit cercle de ceux qui savent soi-disant comment le monde fonctionne « vraiment ». Voici trois de ces sermons :

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