La fausse promesse des fonds de résolution de crise

ROME –  Depuis le début de la stabilisation des marchés en toute fin d’année dernière, l’idée de faire payer au système financier les coûts supportés par les contribuables pour le garder à flot rassemble un nombre croissant de voix parmi les responsables politiques et dans l’opinion publique. La France et la Grande Bretagne ont mis en place une taxe temporaire sur les bonus du secteur financier et le gouvernement des Etats-Unis a proposé une législation prévoyant une ‘prime de responsabilité pour crise financière’ pour récupérer les coûts induits par le Troubled Asset Relief Program américain. Il est aussi question de déterminer comment réformer au mieux le régime de taxation du secteur financier, qui est en général plus souple que dans d’autres secteurs d’activité et qui favorise indûment le crédit par rapport aux prises de participation.

Mais quelles que soient les sommes récupérées pour couvrir les coûts passés, elles ne changeront rien aux incitations du secteur financier en terme de prise de risque excessive. De plus, le montant des sommes à récupérer est très flou.

Tandis que le coût budgétaire direct du soutien apporté au secteur financier représentait 2,5 à 3 % du PIB dans les pays développés (avec des pics à 4,5%), l’impact budgétaire total de la crise est bien plus élevé, se montant au total attendu de l’augmentation de la dette publique – environ 40% du PIB. Et le coût supporté par l’économie dans son ensemble est encore plus important – perte de production et perte d’emplois et la destruction de capital matériel et immatériel, qui selon Andrew Haldane de la Banque d’Angleterre, et d’autres, pourrait augmenter d’un multiple du PIB annuel.

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