La falsa promesa de las sanciones “selectivas”

A pesar de su retórica belicosa, George W. Bush gustaría mucho de evitar tener que optar entre ordenar ataques aéreos contra emplazamientos nucleares iraníes o aceptar un Irán con poder nuclear. Por el momento, los funcionarios de su gobierno esperan que las sanciones “selectivas”, que se dirigen directamente a los líderes iraníes, permitirán llegar a un arreglo. La reciente decisión del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas de intensificar las sanciones actuales sobre Irán, prohibiendo tratos con 15 personas y 13 organizaciones, se orienta precisamente a eso. Sin embargo, si bien algunos miembros del gobierno de EE.UU. argumentan que sanciones similares influyeron para que Corea del Norte cediera con respecto a su programa nuclear, hay varias razones por las que es poco probable que la misma estrategia funcione en el caso de Irán.

Primero que todo, en realidad las sanciones selectivas no funcionaron en el caso de Corea del Norte. El congelamiento de 25 millones de dólares de sus fondos, depositados en el Banco Delta Asia de Macau, ciertamente irritó a los norcoreanos. Sin embargo, esto no evitó que Kim Jong-Il ordenara una prueba de misiles balísticos en junio pasado o una prueba nuclear subterránea en octubre.

En lugar de ello, la voluntad de Corea del Norte de reanudar las negociaciones refleja en parte la decisión de los estadounidenses de dejar de insistir en el “desmantelamiento completo, verificable e irreversible” del programa nuclear norcoreano como precondición para entablar conversaciones para la normalización de las relaciones. La administración Bush ha aceptado que Corea del Norte es una potencia nuclear y que los extranjeros poco pueden hacer al respecto, de modo que Estados Unidos ha cambiado su postura diplomática desde el enfoque intransigente de Japón a la posición de China, más flexible y orientada a asegurar la estabilidad.

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