La fausse promesse des sanctions « ciblées »

Malgré son discours belliqueux, George W. Bush aimerait autant éviter d’avoir à choisir entre des attaques aériennes sur les sites nucléaires iraniens et accepter le programme nucléaire de l’Iran. Pour le moment, le gouvernement Bush espère que les sanctions « ciblées » visant directement les chefs de file iraniens forceront à un compromis. Le but de la récente décision du Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies était précisément de renforcer les sanctions existantes imposées à l’Iran en interdisant les transactions avec 15 individus et 13 organisations. Mais si d’aucuns au sein du gouvernement américain soutiennent que des sanctions similaires ont incité la Corée du Nord à faire des compromis sur son programme nucléaire, cette stratégie ne fonctionnera pas avec l’Iran pour plusieurs raisons.

Tout d’abord, les sanctions ciblées n’ont pas vraiment été efficaces avec la Corée du Nord. Le blocage des 25 millions de dollars de capitaux des responsables politiques à la Banco Delta Asia de Macao a certainement irrité les Nord-Coréens, mais n’a pas empêché Kim Jong-Il de lancer un test balistique en juillet dernier, ni un essai nucléaire souterrain en octobre.

Au lieu de cela, la volonté de la Corée du Nord de reprendre les négociations illustre en partie la décision américaine de ne plus insister sur le démantèlement « complet, vérifiable et irréversible » du programme nucléaire nord-coréen, comme condition préalable aux pourparlers sur la normalisation des relations internationales. Le gouvernement Bush a accepté le fait que la Corée du Nord soit une puissance nucléaire et que des pays tiers ne puissent intervenir : les Etats‑Unis sont donc passés de la position diplomatique intransigeante du Japon à la position plus souple et favorable à la stabilité de la Chine.

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