Il Secondo Avvento di Zhu Rongji?

SHANGHAI – La recente uscita di un libro di discorsi dell’ex premier cinese Zhu Rongji ha riorientato l'attenzione sulle sue audaci - e spesso molto controverse - riforme economiche degli anni ‘90, i cui obiettivi sono stati di tenere a freno le imprese statali (SOE) e una revisione del sistema bancario . Ma la discussione ha preso una piega inaspettata, con i media cinesi che adottano un atteggiamento molto meno critico di quella che era prevalso negli ultimi due decenni.

Date le analogie apparenti tra le sfide che Zhu dovette affrontare e quelle che l'attuale premier Li Keqiang sta tentando di affrontare oggi, per non menzionare il loro impegno comune nei confronti di una trasformazione economica, questo cambiamento potrebbe significare un crescente sostegno per le riforme strutturali. Ma Zhu e Li sono davvero così simili?

Al giorno d’oggi, come negli anni ‘90, la Cina vede il debito delle amministrazioni locali e delle banche commerciali alle stelle, un aumento del rischio fiscale e finanziario, dell’incertezza sulle riforme istituzionali e una diminuzione delle entrate del governo centrale. Secondo Bloomberg, Li sarà il primo premier cinese a non rispettare l'obiettivo ufficiale di crescita annuale dopo Zhu. Nonostante queste somiglianze apparenti, però, la situazione attuale della Cina è fondamentalmente diversa da quella di venti anni fa.

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